ARM i budućnost Linuxa na desktopu

Ivan Dimkovic:


Evo bas presao na Microsoft 365 Business - biznis standardna opcija, $12.5 po korisniku mesecno - dobijas Office 365 aplikacije koje su uvek up-to-date i podrzavaju kolaboraciju, oneDrive sa 1 TB mesta, 50 GB mailbox sa Exchange Online, mozes instaliras na 5 racunara, 5 telefona i 5 tableta po korisniku.

Ono, da progledas, sta da kazem.

Nema vise Exchange administracije, upgrade-a aplikacija, gomile nekompatibilnih sistema za kolaboraciju... $12.5 mesecno po lobanji...

Imam puno loseg da kazem o MSFT proizvodima, ali cloud ponuda nije jedna od tih stvari.

Space Beer
Mislim da cena nije problem, već to da ljudi ne žele/ne znaju da održavaju svoj server. Ako/kada se to reši, tj, pojednostavi toliko da svako van IT struke može da ima svoj kućni server, to će otvoriti tržište i za hardver u rangu današnjih PC računara. Većina homerservera su (stare) PC kante.

Ivan Dimkovic:
@Bane,

Outage? Pa to je (PLURAL) upravo i bio razlog prelaska na 365 (50% service-level, 50% kolaboracija i troskovi).

Ti za ~10 EUR mesecno po lobanji dobijas kompletno odrzavan sistem (Exchange, MSO 365 koji je uvek up-to-date sa licencom za 5+5+5 uredaja, 1 TB store za svakog korisnika, 50 GB mailbox, sve to neko odrzava sa prosecnim uptime-om od 99.98% po kvartalu) ...

Znaci imas firmu sa 100 ljudi, to ti dodje sta - 1000 EUR mesecno? 12000 EUR godisnje?

Hajde molim te preracunaj koliko ce da te kosta da to sam odrzavas ali da imas slican uptime, replikaciju/disaster-recovery, bar na 2-3 datacentra da si rastrkan... sta, sve to za 12K EUR? :-))))

https://docs.microsoft.com/en-.../service-health-and-continuity

Ivan Dimkovic: 
Ako meni Microsoft 365 za 12000 EUR godisnje zavrsava posao, a alternativa je:

- Bar jedan IT-ovac: 50K EUR, naravno nemoj da se salimo trebaju mi 2 zato sto ne zelis da ti stane biznis ako se jedan razboli... vec smo na 100K EUR p.a.
- Serverska oprema u bar 2 datacentra (Exchange + Storage + ako treba aplikativni) - pa hajde da kazemo bar jedno 10-15K EUR godisnje sac
- Softverski troskovi (MSO 2019 ~12K EUR ako kazemo svake 3 godine kupujemo novi, ...)
- Ostalo (backup, saobracaj, ...)

Znaci vec si 130K EUR probio... a Microsoft 365 te kosta 12K EUR...

mjanjic: Ma još je gore ako ti se sa on-premise varijantom desi nešto kao npr. onima u Novom Sadu (ransomware), koliko god da si para potrošio na opremu, ne vredi ništa ako ne platiš ljude.

Branimir Maksimovic: Da su konzole toliko dobre niko ne bi kupovao PC za igranje.

A to da ce debelo placati HW je smesna tvrdnja. HW ce kostati po pravilu ponude i potraznje.
Cena HW moze skociti samo onda kada se potraznja visestruko uveca a proizvodnja ne mozes da isprati ili kad se potraznja mnogo smanji . Nista drugo.

Looking at the recent announcements by Samsung, Qualcomm, Microsoft, AMD and NVIDIA it very clear that x86 will become legacy (may be it already is) and ARM is the future.

The uprising of ARM poses a real threat to Linux and open source software. On X86 based computers, the hardware components (CPU, RAM, bus, storage, video), operating system and applications are separated. These are silo's that know how to talk to each other ("compatible"). This separation means you can run all three Linux branches and Windows on a common Intel or AMD based PC, without selecting a specific version of that OS for the hardware you want to use it on.

That is completely different in the ARM world. Hardware itself is more integrated into one chip, a SOC. That is just the start. The operating system is built specifically for the hardware, allowing for a well integrated and tuned solution. This is what Apple does in its mobile devices and recent M1 Macbooks, resulting in excellent performance and battery life.

It takes intellect, knowledge, time, effort and money to build these solutions. All the big brands will be able to accomplish this, I am sure about that. Well, may be except Intel. I expect that these products, e.g. a Dell laptop with an NVIDIA ARM chip running Windows, will be as closed as they can be. Just like an iPad, people buy the device including the operating system as one package. Unable to load anything else on it. There will be no BIOS setting that allows to format the disk and install another OS, let alone you can find one. It will be the end of 'just installing Linux' on any piece of hardware. It won't work.

For smaller PC builders like Tuxedo Computers or System76 this poses a real threat. Will they be able to keep up? Will there be independent manufactures that resell SOC boards to be used in these systems? Will these boards match the performance of products by the bigger companies? I doubt it. And who will test and optimise Linux on it?

Then, there is the issue of software. There is a great variety of FOSS out there. These are all programmed towards x86 based operating systems and CPU's. The time and effort it takes to re-write this to ARM is huge. Think of programs like Kdenlive, various PIM clients, and just the desktop environments like KDE and GNOME. Translation layers are just a workaround but not a long-term solution.

Of course, X86 systems will be used for the next decade because there are lots of them. I expect that in Q4-2021 and next year, ARM-based computers will start to emerge on business channels and in the consumer space. By Apple of course and by other major brands. By the end of 2022, ARM-computers will be "the default" just like X86 is now. ChromeOS, MacOS and Windows-for-ARM will run on those, but Linux? I doubt it.

As I see it, there has to be some hardware manufacturer which will be exclusive for Linux or it may get really ugly. Sure, we have Pinebook and Raspberry Pi, but I doubt that those can be called typical Linux workstations for many people.

Branimir Maksimovic:
Stefan:"Lupetamo li ovaj lik i ja ili šta?"

Lupetate. ARM nije zamena za x86 na desktopu, a tesko da je i na serveru. Ne secaju se ljudi, ali
ovo nije prvi put ovoliki hajp i predvidjanje kraja x86 arhitekturi. x86 je pokusao da sahrani i Intel
ali nikom to nije uspelo. Stvar je u tome da svet vozi x86, osim na telefonima i gedzetima.
Kolicina softvera koja je u pitanju odrzava x86 evo 30 godina od najave da ce RISC da dominira.
To se nije desilo do sada.