Globalno Zagrevanje... pardon "Climate Change" - novi momenti

Nedeljko: Da bi se videlo da se klima poremetila, nisu potrebna nikakva precizna merenja. To je jasno i iz licnog iskustva. 90-tih je bilo "zima" kao u sred leta u Srbiji, sto ni najstariji zitelji Srbioje nisu pamtili da se desavalo ranije.

Shadowed: Ali bi trebalo uzeti u obzir i brzinu topljenja. Nije isto da se neka kolicina leda otopi za par hiljada godina i za par decenija :)

ArsicS:
Koliko se secam pre neki dan je bilo pomracenje sunca a ta pojava izaziva tektonske poremecaje koji se manifestuju vulkanskim erupcijama i zemljotresima. Nije nikakva crna magija u pitanju vec superpozicija gravitacije Sunca i Meseca na delu planete. Znam da pomracenje nije bilo vidljivo iz Srbije

zaraza: Ajde da lepo izracunamo te "superpozicije", konjukcije, okultacije i slicno.
Ako sve lepo stavimo u matematiku, videces da ces ispasti glup kada pricas ovako nesto.....

Subject: Earthquake Prediction and Lunar Eclipses

I watched the show, "Sightings", on the Sci-Fi channel. There was a story about someone from the University of Hawaii who could predict earthquakes, and I would like more information. Do you have an e-mail address? If so, could you please send it to me?

Nobody at the University of Hawaii predicts earthquakes. The person on "Sightings" was Michael Lee, a teacher of religion and history at Damien High School in Honolulu.
I am convinced that Mr. Lee's predictions have no merit. His basic idea is that an earthquake occurs sometime after the passage of a lunar eclipse in the area from which the eclipse is visible. The trouble is that the areas involved are huge, and his prediction windows last for as long as sixteen days after an eclipse. Since the Earth has about ten earthquakes of greater than magnitude 5 every day, Lee's technique is guaranteed to "predict" a large number of earthquakes, regardless of whether there is actually a link between earthquakes and eclipses. Lee claims a success rate of 40%. 40% seems impressive, until you realize that if you chose locations completely at random (instead of being guided by eclipses) but otherwise followed his procedure, you would also get a 40% hit rate. In other words, Mr. Lee's predictions are no better than completely random guesses. In saying this, however, I do not mean to imply that Mr. Lee is in any way insincere; I am sure he is convinced that his method works.
You can make up your own mind after visiting Mr. Lee's earthquake prediction web page

Gerard Fryer
Hawaii Institute of Geophysics and Planetology
University of Hawaii, Honolulu HI 96822

The observations during the Mohe solar eclipse show no significant gravity variations
during the solar eclipse from the first contact to the last contact....
There were, however, two unexplained gravity anomaly valleys observed from
theMohe solar eclipse on 9March 1997. There has not been such kind of anomalies
reported in the literature. This may be related to the fundamental properties of
gravitation and may have very important scientific implications.

ArsicS: Na par mesta sam nasao podatak da je uticaj otprilike oko pola metra, sto je dosta za tako kratku pojavu

evo interesantnog naucnog teksta na tu temu:

GRAVITY ANOMALY DURING THE MOHE TOTAL SOLAR ECLIPSE

'CO2 reduction treaties useless'

A new report says treaties aimed at reducing CO2 emissions are useless.

The Institution of Mechanical Engineers report says we have to accept the world could change dramatically.

It also says we should start planning our major infrastructure now to accommodate more extreme weather events and sea level rises.

While not against attempts to reduce emissions, the report's authors say we should be realistic about what can be achieved with this approach.

Realism

International diplomats and environment campaigners have, for years, been pursuing an international agreement to reduce carbon emissions.

In its present incarnation it is called the Kyoto Protocol.

This treaty runs out in 2012, and negotiations are carrying on at the moment to replace it - negotiations which will culminate in a meeting in Copenhagen later this year.

The authors of the report are not optimistic about the outcome:

"The new agreement's most basic premise will be to try and limit the negative man-made effects on our climate system for future generations.

"In other words, the agreement will aim to reduce global CO2 emissions by mitigation.

"However, the existing Kyoto Protocol has, to date, been a near total failure, with emissions levels continuing to rise substantially."

While the report's authors point out that the Institution, like many scientific bodies, has a strong belief that we need "to reduce CO2 to secure long-term human survival", they also say that we should be realistic about what we can achieve.

And "even with vigorous mitigation effort, we will continue to use fossil fuel reserves until they are exhausted."